The time that I had my most wins was when I was doing HPS during the bull market. I literally was right most of the time.
I also know a lot more now about the markets.
What if I started anew again using HPS but incorporated what I know about volume, zones, market maker moves, and market tendencies and how to strategize around them?
Step one: start analyzing s&p 500 stocks again to get a feel for the market
Find a niche in stock trading, supply and demand, HPS setups, base trading etc.Really investigate your niche such as how performance is affected by volume patterns, technical indicators, market maturity, market performance, etc. find out how and where to enter and exit and where to set stops.
Then IMPORTANTLY, play your strategy like you see it! If all your trades are going against what normally is supposed to happen, then take the OPPOSITE side of the trade!
Trade what you see and what is here in the present!
I think it’s important to see things AS THEY ARE. it’s taken me a while to realize this but I might finally be putting this idea into practice. Just because you have a hunch doesn’t mean you should jump into a trade. Trade the facts first! Trade the hard setups! then get into hunches after you have those hard criteria.
At this point, US thermal has dropped below $50/mt for over 2 months. Australian has dropped under $60 and is the lowest in 8 years.
Big investors have stepped in and bought up shares of certain coal companies. Several Majors have gone bankrupt and have reverse split their shares.
India has bottlenecks to imports such as land acquisition, environmental, and infrastructure bottleneck issues but met and thermal coal is expected to pick up there and overtake china by 2019.
Japan is the largest coke importer, china is second, india is third.
China has begun exporting its excess steel to india and elsewhere.
Glencore says further production cuts are possible if prices drop further.
indonesia has cut production and will cut further.
many analysts saying coal is near rock bottom and is approaching unsustainability in price. They also say price will languish around here as global demand and economy are low.
I think it’s time to buy soon. Probably around 2016s beginning. There was an uptick in stock price before a coal price recovery in 2009. It could happen that way again.