My Current feel of trading and markets

It’s sunday night 5/8/16. My gains from the last month took a heavy hit this last week. I was up at one point over $5k, now, that’s down to around 2.5k. I think i can admit the fact the I am a little bit rattled by some of the moves down.

Many of my stocks traded down heavily after earnings were released including OCLR and AVD. I am definitely beginning to question the validity of pocket pivots before the earnings release. It’s definitely not a panacea to earnings, but this may change in different environments. Right now earnings are falling and many times more than expected, combined with the recent run-up in stock prices.

So, there have been many distribution days recently. There were also many before the market turned in february. So we will see what the next week has in store.

Most all of my holdings are above their 50 dmas or testing the band around it. I am apprehensive because i added to heavily to gold holdings at a time that many of them are very extended like CDE and AUY. Others have paused and based at their 50 dmas like SBGL and HMY.

The market QQQ and SPY are oversold territory with the SPX sitting at the 50 day. nasdaqs are lower, soxx is sitting around the 200 dma band. small caps IWM and IWC are sitting around breakout channel support/50 dma. IBB is slightly concerning because it closed below the rising multiyear trendline with recent above average vol down days. It has done this before in feb and march as well so it could very well turn.

Materials are sitting at bottom channel support or breakout line support. Based on whats going on now, besides the volume clues of distribution (happening in materials recently), things are ripe for a bounce in many markets.

But I am definitely detecting some negative thoughts and emotions in my own psyche that i need to watch out for. Stick to the rules for now and be ready to get out in case things turn for the worse.


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