Tough Lesson Learned Today – Don’t bet against angry voters

Today the EU Brexit referendum was counted and against oddsmakers and pre-vote polls, the brexit won. My account was 180% long. I am going to really feel this in the morning and I may have to return the funds I borrowed with losses incurred.

The lesson here is, when a decision is close AND IT IS UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE PEOPLE (NOT POLITICIANS), IT COULD REALLY GO EITHER WAY. So the next time something like this hangs in the balance. Reduce your position to at least 50% long!

Lesson learned. Hopefully its not too bad of a result tomorrow morning.



Ok, changing sell strategy for now (sans brexit situation)

Over and over, I’m getting 10% gains wiped out because I’m not tightening my stops. The nature of the market right now is very skiddish and not exactly trending. It may be best to set stops a few ticks below levels acceptable to my personal preference.


With some crazy things happening over in britain last friday, the Brexit is looking less likely. The futures are up at 11pm sunday and they’re up big. Japan’s market is up broadly with all sectors rising especially automakers and oil stocks. Yen fell, dollar fell, euro rose, AUD rose.

These are all good signs for stocks in general but especially coal and steel stocks, as well as other industrial metals. It does however signal a higher potential for a longer consolidation in precious metals.

Can oil keep up its rally tho and continue or will it need to come back down from here? It looks like it will get a huge boost if UK decides to stay.

***Strategy change 

For now, I will still take my shots but will start keeping a tighter stop. After a move, I will sell any close under the 10dma unless it is within 3-5% of the 50dma support. If the stock has not made a move yet, I will go by the original sell rules of 10 and 50dma violation.

Do this until the market hanged character back to trending markets from the current choppy nature.

*New habit:Waiting for the 50dma retest

If it looks like it needs to consolidate and especially if volume is hinting at a pullback. It’s best to be a little patient and wait for a retest of the 50dma before adding or entering.

I.e. Gold in April and May. I had the right idea but I could have saved myself thousands of losses as it pulled back to the 50 and could have gained thousands more by buying at the 50.

Strategy change for the short term?

On May 31st, the oniel disciples talked about their current strategy of taking quicker profits in this current market. Taking profits when you have them and using tight stops. Should I employ this strategy for now as well?

Currently, many of my stocks have moved up as I’ve purchased them coming out of bases and after pocket pivots or gap-ups. And they’re almost all sound stocks with record revenues and the like.

And I could have taken profits in my last round of gains on SWN glncy cray ino oclr, etc and locked in much better gains. Instead I decided to wait for retests of longer term moving averages. 

In that case I would have made more. But…. Is it worth missing out on the next big bull run? That is still up for debate.