Cubs win

The cubs winning that epic World Series game 7 reminded me of how it would feel if one of my teams won it all.

It made me think about how hard professional sports teams try to win their craft. I need to put the same effort into my craft. Let’s do this.

My major mistake

The major factor in me losing money in the stock market was stating I. A Lodi trade for too long,

Has been being conservative (small bets) and making a little money at the wrong time and getting aggressive (big bets) at exactly the wrong time. 

I need to switch that to getting aggressive at the exact right time and reducing and taking profits at the right time.

Acacia share expansion

Acacia dropped 6% premarket from 110 to 103 this morning after it announced its offering at 100. 

The price drop doesn’t add up, even though the volume is huge. The stock popped 11% on news of solid prelim results AND share offering. That means the people who bought the stock didn’t care enough about the share offering to not push the stock up 11%. Now maybe the offering came in a little lower than expected but the share price on the day of announcement was around $100. This couldn’t have taken many big players by surprise. 

That’s why this drop of 6% today on volume seems like a manufactured or overreaction event and price should return back to 110 fairly quickly.

I bought another 10k worth at 103.

We’ll see if my logic holds

*update market close: price closed at 100 just below the 50 day. I sold 200 shares leaving me with 275 or around 27000 in holdings.

Notes on myself and my habits 

Recently, I’ve had a lull in my trading research and enthusiasm. I’ve been putting off and even avoiding looking at watchlists and curating them on a regular basis. I’ve also stopped reading transcripts. 

We’ll talk about the causes later but the result is me having less conviction in my trades, not being in position to take advantage of breakouts and pps, and perhaps breaking out of my rules of trading which are paramount to the o’neilian method (although I should observe what I’m doing, I think I’m buying stocks that have pp’s after they retrace, but maybe not).

The reason I’m not reading transcripts and market news is because I am getting mentally fatigued of reading so much. Is this because I’m fatigued or for outside reasons? Is there a better way t go about this?

I think I am also losing enthusiasm because I still have not gained ground on my account. I am doing something wrong. The feedback system of the market is telling me something very clear: that what I am doing is not working.

What is it that I’m doing and importantly, what am I not doing?

Thing is, I’m very good at building my position back even or just above even; I am also very good at letting it fall back to under even. My method for getting back to even from loss was buying bases and breakouts in unextended stocks (such as those just coming from bases and not at channel tops) and usually with 100% long. I usually come back to below break even by adding 200% long at the wrong time, when the stocks I’m in start going down (when those stocks I’m in or the market itself pull back due to overextension). 

So I’m basically going 100% long at the right times to recover, and 200% long at the exact wrong times.

What if instead of adding 200% long at the extended time, I take profits off the table instead. Then I PATIENTLY wait for the most opportune time and I go long again with 100-200%. The market has been choppy (especially in commodity markets, which is what I’m mostly in) even in the midst of this huge rally.